Communication that shifts power

Communication that shifts power

TANKER

GOVERNMENT CRISIS EXPECTED
20.08.2009

The general election for the Norwegian Parliament will be completely open this year. The electoral system may secure the victory for Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg, but should the election prove the end of the red-green majority, the ratio of power between the non-socialist parties will probably be decisive of whether or not this autumn will bring a change of government.

Regardless of the election result, the probability is that no government will survive the whole electoral term. The 2009 general election should basically be a walkover for the opposition. Since 1993, no Norwegian government has survived a general election, and in this spring’s European Parliament election the conservatives beat the left wing in no uncertain way in practically all Western European countries. When one in addition considers the breaches of promises, the scandals and a very scant majority from 2005 which must be defended, the situation should basically be a hopeless one for the present government.

Still, the opinion polls show that it’s quite possible for the red-green side to keep their majority. Mr. Jens Stoltenberg’s personal popularity, the finance crisis as well as the disagreement on the non-socialist side have all contributed to the Labour Party’s continued strength since the 2005 general election. As the Norwegian electoral system favours the biggest party, very little movement is needed to save the majority. Should the Labour Party achieve a support of 35%, the Progress Party less than 25% and the Conservatives below 16%, the electoral system will probably ensure a continued red-green majority. This because the Labour Party will get the last mandate in practically all “neck-and-neck” counties. In this case, the present government will continue as before. During the four years of the electoral term, oil drilling, the EU question or general government wear and tear may contribute to the rapid withdrawal from government of the Socialist Left Party or the Centre Party.

If, on the other hand, the general election results in a non-socialist Storting majority, the ratio of power between the Progress Party on the one side and the other non-socialist parties on the other, will probably be decisive of whether a change of government will take place. A non-socialist majority government is a political impossibility. The same is true for a Conservative/Progress Party government as long as Mr. Lars Sponheim (the Liberal Party) prefers Jens (Stoltenberg) to (Siv) Jensen, and the Progress Party is far bigger than the Conservative Party. The strategic problem of the Progress Party is that the centre parties may enter into a budget compromise with the Labour Party, while a budget compromise between the Labour Party and the Progress Party is a political impossibility. The Liberal Party and the Christian People’s Party consequently may be powerful enough to be the Conservative Party’s choice as the preferred partners in government.

A centre-conservative government may also take office even if the three parties in question don’t have a Storting majority. Should the Stoltenberg government fall, the government assignmenet will go to the second biggest party or the second biggest party group in the opposition. In case the centre-conservative parties together will be more powerful than the Progess Party, and the centre parties are aware that they’ll get the government assignment is case Mr. Stoltenberg fails, they will with certainty bring down the present government. This will result in an Erna Solberg (Conservative) government which may stay in power until an annoyed Progess Party finds an appropriate case to bring them down during the electoral term.

Should, however, the power ratio favour the Progressive Party and they’re first in line to form a ny government, the centre parties no longer have the same incentives to bring down the Stoltenberg government. In that case, the result may be a minority government formed solely by the Labour Party or all present government parties. Such a government will be dependent on 3 socialist and 2 non-socialist parties agreeing on each case put before the Storting, and will have to fight for their existence throughout the electoral term. A government crisis in such a parliamentary situation may lead to Mrs.Siv Jensen still getting the opportunity of forming a pure Progressive Party government, which quickly will be brought down by a hostile Storting.

The 2009 general election may soon bring us a Storting with several government crises during the next 4 years. The electoral system may save the red-green majority, and the position of balance makes it probable that the ratio of power between the Progressive Party and the three other non-socialist parties will be decisive of whether Mrs. Erna Solberg (Conservative) or Mr. Jens Stoltenberg (Labour) will make the New Year’s speech in 2010. But firstly, the voters shall have their say. Enjoy the election!

Audun Sommerli Time